Hand to Shoulder

Pitchers and catchers report February 14th.

While the media melodrama surrounding the “revelatory” Joe Torre book pitches loudly like an Italian opera, that tome essentially outlines old storylines.

A baseball offseason continues.

The NY Post picks up the trail again, quoting Brian Cashman on the progress of Torre-era stalwarts Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera, both of whom closed their 2008 seasons on the operating table with open shoulders:

“It’s very early in the process for those guys,” Cashman said yesterday. “I do have concerns just because I have a closer who we desperately need who’s coming off of shoulder surgery, no matter how minor it may be…And I have a catcher who is a perennial All-Star, one of the premier players at that position in this game and a potential Hall of Fame candidate, here that we definitely need to come back, and he’s rehabbing a significant shoulder surgery.”

Cashman said Rivera hasn’t begun throwing yet, and that Posada did some throwing yesterday.

“So far, so good,” the GM said. “[But] when you get to the level of real functional activity … that’s when you really get a chance to get a better feel for this stuff.”

Cashman delivers a rather politely-worded description of their progress, perhaps to pay some quick homage to the winning tradition that both of these players have abided by their entire careers, a winning tradition whose image has been somewhat muddied as of late.

But in and between the lines of Brian’s respectful remarks, some real concerns come to bear.  Mariano turns 40 this year, and although he looked as good last season as he ever has, the physical effects of aging can be as sudden and cumulative as they can be gradual.  The age factor is feared mostly because the age factor is unpredictable.  Although Mariano has kept his annual innings count in the low 70′s and his career longevity should not be projected using the same metrics as a starter [who heaves 150+ innings of fastball year after year], he is coming up on a career milestone for the modern closer.  Looking at the top 15 all-time saves leaders, a straightforward calculation of average career longevity is 16 years:

Notice that the players driving that average upward were either old-school iron horses [Eckersley], or had tailed off in effectiveness significantly at the ends of their careers [Franco & Mesa]. 

All told, one can, at best, expect 1 or 2  more effective years from Mariano Rivera without being overenthusiastic.  This underscores the importance of assigning a role to 23-year old Joba Chamberlain, who has both the electric stuff of a starter and the aggressive mentality of a modern closer, and whose role has been craftily hidden from view by the Yankee organization.  Fan opinions are divided.  Some say, “stretch out his innings and start him”, some say, “work him out of the pen as a game-shortener”.  In both scenarios, many things have to happen before Joba’s role is etched in stone.  He wouldn’t supplant Mariano as the closer, if that is the plan, until the Sandman falls hard.  With a multi-year rotation front of CC, AJ, and Wang firming up, and a minor league brimming with untapped reservoirs of talent, Joba probably wouldn’t be officialized as a starter unless 2 or 3 of the already-affirmed starters in the larger organization were suddenly ineffective.  In any case, being able to play a threat-worthy wildcard can disrupt the greater plans of opponents, if managed correctly. 

Although Brian Cashman dedicated the most elaborate language of the quote to Jorge Posada, the recovery of Jorge’s shoulder actually doesn’t seem as critical an issue as Cashman made it seem.  The acquisition of Teixeira and the cramming of the roster with professional bats in the outfield ladels Posada’s potential offensive performance into the gravy boat.  And if he can’t throw, chances are he can’t bat either, so the line at the DH counter won’t be effected by a finished shoulder.  Bottom line is that the Yanks won’t be short on offense in Posada’s absence.  They won’t be short on defense, either – say what you will about Jose Molina’s bat, he cut down 44% of the run game last year [41% for his career] and the pitchers love him.  It’s not unreasonable at all to see the Yanks fielding a patchwork of Jose Molina and any number of bolt-on defense-oriented catchers [Varitek, anyone?] to buy time until the excellent prospects ripen on the vine.  Recall that in the championship years of  ’96 and ’97, the Yanks platooned and transitioned until Posada broke out with a big year in ’98, when he installed himself as an offensive pillar.

Is Brian Cashman “desperate” for his closer, and if so, why communicate that through the media?  Is his “potential Hall of Fame candidate” catcher the lynchpin of a hidden strategy?

I spoke to a professional card player a week ago, who happens to have a degree in psychology, and the conversation turned to the Art of the Tell.  This card player, it seemed, has become pretty adept at reading the body language from the tips of the fingers to the tops of the head to the stand of the shoulders.  “99% of the time,” he advised, “the good player will show a strong tell when they are actually weak, and show a weak tell when they are actually strong.” 

Baseball is a game of reading the signs, parsing meaning from a movement of the hand to the mouth, a tip of the cap, the hand touches the shoulder – and that is the sign.  What’s Brian’s next move? 

Pitchers and catchers report February 14th.

UPDATE:  The official Yankee site yields some more quotes.  Cashman on Mo and Jorge:

“We’re keeping our fingers crossed,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said. “We will definitely go into Spring Training with concerns about the health of two extremely important positions on any team that wants to get to the promised land.”

On Matsui:

Cashman also noted that Hideki Matsui was rehabbing well before returning to Japan for the winter. The 34-year-old outfielder underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee in late September after the Yankees were eliminated from playoff contention.  Matsui is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training. Cashman said he had less [sic. fewer] concerns about Matsui, since he had a similar procedure on his right knee after the 2007 season.

If you recall, Matsui was not healthy enough to complete a 2008 campaign.  Godzira!~